Demography after the war: IMF predicts Ukraine's future.

In the baseline scenario of events in Ukraine published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its April World Economic Outlook report, it is assumed that the active phase of the war may end by the end of 2025. According to this report, an updated demographic forecast is also provided, taking into account the partial return of Ukrainian refugees when the situation in the country stabilizes. This is reported by 'Glavkom' citing the IMF report.

According to the updated demographic forecast from the IMF, the active phase of the war in Ukraine may end by the end of 2025. However, even in the most optimistic scenario, the population will be lower than before the conflict began. IMF experts see key factors for stabilizing the demographic situation as security, economic recovery, and support from the international community.

According to IMF estimates, the population of Ukraine in 2025 is expected to be 32.9 million people. With the cessation of hostilities, a gradual increase in the population is expected:

• 2025: 32.9 million people (previous forecast from October 2024 - 33.0 million)
• 2026: 33.4 million people (previous forecast - 34.2 million)
• 2027: 34.0 million people (previous forecast - 34.5 million)
• 2028: 34.0 million people (previous forecast - 34.5 million)
• 2029: 34.0 million people (previous forecast - 34.5 million)
• 2030: 33.9 million people

However, even in the most optimistic scenario, the population will remain lower than the pre-war level of 41 million people (as of 2021).

IMF experts point out that stabilizing the demographic situation requires security, economic recovery, and support from the international community.

Recall that the International Monetary Fund improved its forecast for the dollar to hryvnia exchange rate by 2030 but worsened its growth forecast for Ukraine's economy in 2025.