The dollar is preparing for serious changes: experts told what Ukrainians should expect.

Plans of the National Bank

The investment group of companies Dragon Capital reported possible changes in the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine. According to their experts, the National Bank of Ukraine plans to start weakening the hryvnia in the second half of 2025. It is expected that by the end of the year, the official exchange rate may reach 44 hryvnias per dollar.

'We expect the NBU to return to a controlled and gradual weakening of the hryvnia in the second half of the year when inflation rates begin to decline. However, considering the significant volumes of financial assistance, we have raised the NBU's reserve forecast to $59 billion (from $41 billion) and lowered the end-of-year exchange rate forecast.'

The previous forecast anticipated an exchange rate of 45 hryvnias per dollar by the end of 2025, but it has now been raised by one hryvnia. This improvement in the forecast is explained by the receipt of financial aid.

Expected changes in the situation

Experts also note that a sustainable cessation of hostilities may lead to a slower pace of depreciation of the national currency. The improvement in the situation in the market will depend on several factors, such as fundamental price pressure and the slowdown of private capital outflow.

• Fundamental price pressure will be higher.
• Improvement in the situation with the balance of payments is expected.

Analysts emphasized that the current situation of the foreign trade deficit remains complex due to structural changes in the economy. Changes in the currency exchange rate are expected, depending on external financing and inflow of private capital.

Analysts have already revised their inflation and hryvnia exchange rate forecasts for 2025, which allows for certain economic changes in the future.